From $100 to $1,000 in 3 Months: The Unprecedented Freight Surge on China–South Korea 40HQ Lanes

In what has caught most exporters off guard, ocean freight for 40ft high-cube containers from China to South Korea has staged a historic rally. Rates stood at roughly $100 per 40HQ just three months ago, climbed to $500 a month ago, and have now hit $1,000 for sailings around October 10.

For years, this short-haul lane was known as a low-cost, stable route – carriers even offered implicit subsidies to fill empty backhaul containers. Today that era is over.

Global shipping alliances have cancelled 77 sailings (an 11% cancellation rate) between weeks 39 and 43, according to Drewry's latest Cancelled Sailings Tracker. Most cuts target transpacific and Asia-Europe lanes, pulling vessel capacity away from intra-Asia networks and tightening available slots on Korea services.

Maersk will raise origin terminal handling charges (OHC) for South Korea trades effective October 1, 2026. Carriers including CMA CGM have also rolled out peak season surcharges (PSS) across East Asia exports, adding upward pressure even on short-haul routes.

Very-low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) in Singapore was priced at $859.5 per tonne on September 24, with marine gasoil (MGO) at $1,328.5 per tonne, according to Oil Price API. Q4 bunker prices are forecast to rise further, directly squeezing carrier operating costs.

China's Golden Week holiday concentrates shipments in late September and early October, while South Korea's food processing and chemical sectors – which rely heavily on imported ingredients – are building Q4 inventory. The combined demand spike is straining near-term slot availability.

For low-margin bulk commodities like food additives and chemical powders, freight now accounts for a much larger share of landed cost. Spot rates are likely to remain elevated through October. Book early, quote with freight escalation clauses, and consider splitting shipments to smooth cost impact.