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I-Quecheng Co., Ltd.: Umkhiqizi Oholayo we-Precipitated Silica e-China Oqhubekayo NgeTekhnoloji Ethuthukile Nezindlela Zokukhiqiza Ezisimeme
Kwadalwa ngo 10.04
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I. Core Overview: China's Leading Enterprise in Precipitated Silica
With over 20 years of experience in the silica industry, Quecheng Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in China's precipitated silica sector. By the end of 2022, it had established four production bases in Wuxi, Anhui, Fujian, and Thailand, with a silica production capacity of 330,000 tons (ranking 3rd globally). Additionally, there are 100,000 tons of under-construction and planned capacity, highlighting its significant scale advantage.
Ngokwezohwebo, le nkampani igxile kwi-silica ye-rubber yezimboni njengomkhiqizo wayo oyinhloko (okwakha u-88% wemali engenayo ku-H1 2023). Ngonyaka ka-2022, yafinyelela imali engenayo engu-1.746 billion yuan kanye nenhlalakahle yokuhola eyabhalwa kubanikazi bamasheya engu-380 million yuan. Kusukela ngo-2017 kuya ku-2022, amazinga okukhula okuphindaphindiwe (CAGR) kwemali engenayo nenhlalakahle yokuhola eyabhalwa kubanikazi bamasheya afinyelele ku-10% no-15% ngokulandelana, kukhombisa ukukhula okuqhubekayo kokusebenza.
Its core competitiveness centers on three dimensions: first, the new rice husk-based process (reducing carbon footprint by approximately 140% compared to traditional processes, commercialized in 2022); second, the full industrial chain layout (self-production of core raw materials such as sodium silicate and sulfuric acid to stabilize cost fluctuations); third, in-depth cooperation with international customers (long-term partnerships with tire leaders like Pirelli, with overseas sales accounting for 49% in 2022).
Northeast Securities predicts that the company's revenue will reach 1.790 billion yuan, 1.934 billion yuan, and 2.262 billion yuan in 2023-2025 respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 436 million yuan, 479 million yuan, and 628 million yuan. It has assigned an "Overweight" rating and a target market value of 7.2 billion yuan.
II. In-depth Company Analysis: Full Industrial Chain Layout + Stable Operations
1. Umlando Wokuthuthukiswa kanye Nezikhundla Zezimboni
- 成立于2003年，吴兴确诚硅化学；于2005年推出首条生产线；于2011年完成股份制改革；于2020年上市（IPO）；于2016年成立泰国子公司，正式启动全球布局。
- Ngokuphela kuka-2022, amandla awo okukhiqiza abekwe endaweni yokuqala eChina nendaweni yesithathu emhlabeni jikelele. Ngamathani angama-100,000 akhishiwe futhi ahleliwe, inzuzo yayo yokwakha izokwandiswa kakhulu esikhathini esizayo.
- Bhalwe i-industrial chain ephelele ye-"quartz sand/soda ash → sodium silicate/sulfuric acid → silica" enokuzimela okuphezulu kwezinto zokwakha, iqinisekisa ukuzinza kokuhlinzekwa.
2. Ukusebenza Nokukhiqiza
- Performance Growth: From January to September 2023, affected by short-term fluctuations in raw material prices, revenue reached 1.323 billion yuan (down 0.56% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders was 305 million yuan (down 1.97% YoY). However, the production and sales volume in a single quarter hit a record high, showing a sound capacity release rhythm.
- Capacity Utilization: Nearly full capacity in 2018-2019; dropped to 76% in 2020-2021 due to the commissioning of new bases; rebounded to 87% in Q3 2023, indicating continuous optimization of capacity utilization efficiency.
- Umkhiqizo Isakhiwo: Ngaphandle kwe-silica ye-rubber yezimboni eyinhloko, imali engenayo evela kumabhizinisi aphakeme afana ne-silica yokwengeza ukudla kanye ne-asidi ye-sulfur ihlale izinzile, yakha ipotfoliyo yemikhiqizo ehlukahlukene.
3. Profitability and Operational Capability
- Profitability: In 2022, the gross profit margin was 28.57% and the net profit margin was 21.78%. From January to September 2023, the net profit margin increased to 23.07% (up 1.29 percentage points YoY), benefiting from the decline in raw material prices.
- Cost Control: Since 2020, the sales expense ratio has been maintained below 0.5%, and the total period expense ratio is lower than that of comparable companies such as Lianke Technology and Lingwei Technology, demonstrating outstanding cost control capabilities.
- R&D na Cash Flow: Kusukela ngo-2017, ukutshalwa kwezimali ku-R&D kube sekuhlanganise ngaphezu kuka-3% wemali engenayo. Njengoba kufika ku-Okthoba 2023, inezinhlamvu eziyi-44 zokwakha kanye nezimvume zokusebenzisa eziyi-103. Ngo-2022, i-net cash flow evela emisebenzini yokusebenza yaba yizigidi eziyi-420 zamaRandi (ezihlanganisa u-109% we-net profit), kubonisa cash flow enempilo.
III. Umkhakha Isizinda: Amathayi Aluhlaza Ashayela Ukukhula Kwezidingo zeSilica
1. Umkhakha Usayizi kanye Nokuhlukaniswa Kwenqubo
- Global Market: Global silica consumption exceeded 4 million tons in 2022, with an expected CAGR of 6.52% for the market size from 2022 to 2027.
- Chinese Market: The apparent consumption of silica in China reached 1.5131 million tons in 2021 (including 1.4 million tons of precipitated silica and 113,100 tons of fumed silica). The CAGR of apparent consumption is expected to be 9.5% from 2021 to 2026, approaching 2.4 million tons by 2026.
- Process Differences: Precipitated silica accounts for over 90% of the Chinese market, with lower prices, mainly used in tires, rubber, and other fields; fumed silica has a purity of over 99.8% and higher prices, focusing on high-end scenarios such as silicone rubber (see the table below for details).
Process Type | Raw Materials | Purity | Price Level | Core Application Areas |
沉淀 | Sodium Silicate, Sulfuric Acid | ≥98% | Low | Amathayi, Ujamu, Ukudla |
Fumed | Silicon Tetrachloride, Hydrogen | ≥99.8% | Very High | High-end Silicone Rubber, Sealing Materials |
Gel Method | Sodium Silicate, Sulfuric Acid | ≥98% | High | Coatings, Battery Coating Panels |
2. Demand Side: Green Tires as the Core Driver
- Downstream Structure: In 2021, the tire sector accounted for 37.14% of China's silica consumption, making it the largest application scenario.
- Policy Promotion: The EU (EC 661/2009), the US, China, and other regions/countries have implemented tire labeling regulations, mandating the labeling of fuel efficiency and wet grip to promote the popularization of green tires (the penetration rate of green tires in China was approximately 30% in 2022, with a global CAGR of 9.3% from 2020 to 2027).
- Demand Forecast: Green tires use silica instead of carbon black, which can reduce rolling resistance by 30% and fuel consumption by 5-7%. It is expected that the global total tire capacity will reach 1.839 billion units in 2025, with a green tire penetration rate of 37.3%. Based on a calculation of 3kg of high-dispersion silica per tire, the global demand for high-dispersion silica will reach 2.06 million tons in 2025 (compared to 1.5759 million tons in 2022).
3. Iphakeli: Ukuhweba Kwamanye Amazwe KweMonopoly Emakethe Ephakeme, Ukuthuthukiswa Kokugxiliswa Kwendawo
- Overseas Pattern: International leaders such as Evonik (510,000 tons of capacity) and Solvay (515,000 tons of capacity) monopolize the high-end market, with a total capacity of 1.645 million tons.
- Domestic Pattern: In 2021, the capacity of precipitated silica in China was 2.686 million tons (with a utilization rate of 67.12%). The industry concentration continued to improve, with enterprises with a capacity of over 50,000 tons accounting for 75.84% of the total capacity (up 4.72 percentage points YoY), and low-end capacity gradually being phased out.
- Import-Export Gap: In H1 2023, the average import price of silica in China was 18,700 yuan/ton, while the average export price was 6,200 yuan/ton. High-end products still rely on imports, leaving significant room for domestic substitution.
IV. Core Advantages: Driven by Technology + Customers
1. Izinzuzo Zobuchwepheshe: Amalayisense Njengokwesekwa, Izinqubo Ezintsha Zihola Ukuguqulwa Kwezimboni
- High-Dispersion Technology: The 30,000 tons/year high-dispersion silica technology for green tires won the industry's technological progress award. Its products have obtained ISO 9000, IATF 16949, and other certifications, with the dispersion grade increased from 7.5 to 10 and the pore volume from 1.3 to 1.7 cm³/g, achieving performance comparable to international first-class standards.
- New Rice Husk-Based Process: Using rice husk ash instead of quartz sand and biomass fuel instead of natural gas, the carbon footprint is reduced to -0.82 kg CO₂eq (compared to 2.06 kg for traditional processes), and the metal impurity content is lower (iron content ≤200 mg/kg vs. ≤500 mg/kg for traditional processes). Commercialized in 2022, it achieved small-batch sales in 2023, with a unit price 10%-30% higher than traditional products. After the upgrade of the Anhui base, it will form a capacity of 23,360 tons.
- Full Industrial Chain Cost Reduction: Wuxi Dongwo has a sulfuric acid capacity of 200,000 tons/year. Self-produced sulfuric acid reduces raw material procurement costs, and the waste heat from sulfuric acid production is used for power generation to further optimize energy costs.
2. Customer Advantages: Cooperating with International Leaders, Steady Growth in Overseas Sales
- Cooperation with Core Customers: Since 2007, it has supplied high-dispersion silica and was awarded Pirelli's Global Best Supplier in 2017 and 2019 (the only Chinese supplier in the silica category). The customer verification cycle lasts 2-4 years, resulting in extremely strong cooperation stickiness.
- Overseas Sales Performance: In 2022, overseas revenue reached 857 million yuan, accounting for 49% of total revenue. It has signed semi-annual or annual long-term supply agreements with international customers, featuring a stable pricing mechanism and better profitability than domestic sales.
V. Ibhuku Lokwazisa Ngezezimali Nezixwayiso Zezingo
1. Ibhuku Lezezimali (2023E-2025E)
Indicator | 2021 (Actual) | 2022 (Actual) | 2023 (Forecast) | 2024 (Forecast) | 2025 (Forecast) |
收入（亿元） | 150.3 | 174.6 | 179.0 | 193.4 | 226.2 |
Umnotho Wokukhula (%) | 42.42 | 16.20 | 2.49 | 8.04 | 16.96 |
归属于股东的净利润（亿元） | 30.0 | 38.0 | 43.6 | 47.9 | 62.8 |
Net Profit Growth (%) | 55.16 | 26.79 | 14.54 | 9.81 | 31.27 |
每股收益（元） | 0.72 | 0.92 | 1.04 | 1.15 | 1.51 |
P/E Ratio (Times) | 27.29 | 20.53 | 13.46 | 12.25 | 9.34 |
2. Ukulinganisa nokuhlola
- Comparable Companies: Selected Lingwei Technology, Lianke Technology, and Jianghan New Materials as comparable companies, with an average forecast P/E ratio of 14.7 times for 2024.
- Valuation Logic: Considering the company's commercialization advantages of the rice husk-based process and its expansion potential in medium-to-high-end fields (oral care, silicone rubber), a P/E ratio of 15 times for 2024 is assigned, corresponding to a target market value of 7.2 billion yuan.
- Investment Rating: First coverage, assigned an "Overweight" rating.
3. Izixwayiso Zokubhekelela
- Project Construction Risk: Uma uma 100,000-ton capacity eyakhiwayo ithinteka ngezinto ezifana nokuvunywa nokuqhubeka kokwakha, kungavimbela ukukhula kokusebenza.
- Downstream Demand Risk: If the demand growth of downstream industries such as tires and shoe materials is lower than expected, it will affect the company's product sales.
- Market Competition Risk: The monopoly position of overseas leaders in the high-end market will be difficult to break in the short term, and the domestic substitution process may be disrupted by external factors.
Ngiyavuma
Le ndaba ibhalwe ngokusekelwe embikweni ocwaningweni ophumile weNortheast Securities. Idatha nezincomo ezithintekayo zenzelwe kuphela ukubhekisela embonini futhi azimele noma iyiphi icebiso lokwenza izinqumo zokutshalwa kwezimali. Abatshalizimali kufanele baphathe izingozi zabo uma benza noma yiziphi izenzo ezisekelwe kule ndaba. Ukushicilelwa kwale contenido kuwebhusayithi yenkampani akuhambisani nokuqinisekiswa kokugcina kwemibono embikweni. Ukuze uthole ulwazi olwakamuva nolunembile, sicela ubheke izikhangiso ezisemthethweni.
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