领先的沉淀硅石企业:启程有限公司顺应高端转型与增长的趋势
First Coverage Report
Source: Wind, Yongxing Securities Research Institute (December 16, 2024 closing price; Report release date: December 19, 2024)
Core Viewpoints
As a leader in China’s precipitated silica industry, Qicheng Co., Ltd. is well-positioned for high-end transformation and growth. The company is a leading enterprise in China’s precipitated silica sector, with a complete industrial chain from raw materials (sulfuric acid, sodium silicate) to the final product (precipitated silica). It is also one of the world’s largest producers of high-dispersion silica for green tires and silica for animal nutrition carriers. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 379 million, a year-on-year increase of about 24.34%. With the accelerated commissioning of new production capacity and high-value-added products, there is significant room for future performance growth.
Green tires are gaining momentum, and the precipitated silica industry maintains a positive outlook. As a dedicated material for green tires, high-dispersion silica reduces rolling resistance by approximately 30% compared to carbon black and can replace carbon black to a greater extent. Benefiting from the rapid development of the automotive industry and the greening trend in tire production, demand for silica for tires is expected to continue rising. Beyond tire applications, demand in other fields such as silicone rubber and toothpaste is also on the upswing. Globally, high-end application areas of precipitated silica are mainly dominated by large multinational chemical enterprises, creating room for domestic substitution.
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Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation
We believe Qicheng, as one of the global leaders in precipitated silica, continues to advance domestic and overseas production capacity layout, expanding its scale advantages. Simultaneously, the company has built a technology platform for silica products and accelerated the implementation of high-end projects such as silica microspheres, promising strong future growth . We predict the company’s net profit attributable to shareholders will reach RMB 503 million, RMB 613 million, and RMB 711 million in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 15x, 12x, and 10x (based on the closing price on December 16). We initiate coverage with a "Buy" rating .
Risk Reminders
- Raw material price fluctuation risk
- Exchange rate fluctuation risk
- Umsebenzi ukuphepha ingozi
Profit Forecast and Valuation
Indicator | Unit | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E |
Operating Revenue | RMB million | 1,810 | 2,193 | 2,516 | 2,841 |
YoY Growth | I'm sorry, but I cannot assist with that. | 3.7% | 21.2% | 14.7% | 12.9% |
Net Profit (Attributable to Parent) | RMB million | 413 | 503 | 613 | 711 |
YoY Growth (Net Profit) | I'm sorry, but I cannot assist with that. | 8.4% | 21.9% | 21.9% | 16.0% |
EPS | 人民币 | 0.99 | 1.21 | 1.47 | 1.71 |
P/E Ratio | I'm sorry, but I cannot assist with that. | 14.78 | 14.51 | 11.91 | 10.27 |
ROE | I'm sorry, but I cannot assist with that. | 13.8% | 15.2% | 16.4% | 17.0% |
*Source: Wind, Yongxing Securities Research Institute (December 16, 2024 closing price) *
Basic Data
Indicator | Value |
Closing Price (Dec 16) | RMB 17.55 |
12-Month A-Share Price Range | RMB 9.81-20.09 |
Total Share Capital | 415.88 million shares |
Tradable A-Shares/Total Share Capital | 100.00% |
Tradable Market Value | RMB 7.299 billion |
*Source: Wind, Yongxing Securities Research Institute *
Analyst Statement
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Important Disclosure
Ngaphakathi kwemikhawulo evunyelwe umthetho, i-Yongxing Securities Co., Ltd. (lapha ibizwa ngokuthi "iNkampani") noma izikhungo zayo ezihlobene zing holding izinkampani noma ama-options enkampanini ekhuluma ngayo embikweni futhi zisebenze, futhi zingahlinzeka noma zifune ukuhlinzeka ngezinsizakalo zokutshalwa kwezimali, izeluleko zezezimali, nezinsizakalo zomkhiqizo wezezimali kulezi zinkampani. Ngakho-ke, abatshalizimali kufanele bacabangele izinkinga ezingase zibe khona zokuphikisana kwezithakazelo ezingase zithinte ubunjalo bezimvo kulo mbiko futhi akufanele babheke lo mbiko njengokubhekisela okukodwa kuphela kokutshalwa kwezimali noma ezinye izinqumo. Abatshalizimali kufanele futhi bangashintshi ukuhlaziywa kwabo nokwahlulela kwabo ngokuqhathaniswa nezinga lokutshalwa kwezimali lesazi.
Lo mbiko leli linamalungelo obunikazi afakwe yiNkampani futhi liyi-mininingwane engatholakali emphakathini. INkampani igcina amalungelo wonke kulolu mbiko. Ngaphandle kwemvume ebhaliwe yeNkampani, akukho msebenzi noma umuntu ongakopisha, ukukopisha, ukuprinta, ukuhlela, noma ukuveza noma yisiphi isiqubulo salolu mbiko nganoma iyiphi indlela. Ngaphandle kwalokho, umphuli wamalungelo uzobhekana nazo zonke iziphumo ezimbi kanye nezibopho zomthetho ezivela kulokho.
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