Ngemuva Kwezingxabano ZaseMiddle East: Izitayela Zemakethe Ye-Silica Nezokuqonda Kwamasu 2026-2028

Kwadalwa ngo 05.12

Inkathi Yemva Kwempi YaseMpumalanga Ephakathi: Ukuhlelwa Kabusha Kwesiphakamiso Somhlaba Wonke Sewayisi kaSilica & Ukuhlaziywa Okuphelele Kwemakethe ka-2026-2028

Kubuyekeziwe: Meyi 12, 2026 | Umbiko Ophelele Womkhakha

Isifinyezo Esiphezulu

NgoMeyi 2026, isimo saseMpumalanga Ephakathi sifikelele esigabeni esibalulekile emlandweni: i-US ne-Iran bafinyelele esivumelwaneni sokuqala sokuvulwa kancane kweStrait of Hormuz, kanti ukuthunyelwa kwezimpahla e-Red Sea kwaqala ukululama kancane. Noma kunjalo, ukuguqulwa kwezinto ezithinta ukukhiqizwa kwe-silica emhlabeni wonke sekuyinto engenakuguqulwa. Le ngxabano yezombusazwe, eyayiqale ekupheleni kuka-2025, ayizange nje yenyuse izindleko zamandla nezokuthutha esikhathini esifushane kodwa futhi yashintsha kakhulu izinto ezithinta ukuhweba kwamazwe omhlaba, ukuhlelwa kwamandla okukhiqiza, kanye nokuncintisana kwe-silica.

Imephu yomhlaba wonke yokwakhiwa kabusha kwezinto zokuhambisa i-silica ekhombisa imizila yokuhweba kanye nezimboni ezithintwa yizinguquko zezombangazwe.

Ngokusekelwe kudatha yakamuva ye-Q1 2026 yamasiko, imibiko yezezimali yezinkampani kanye nocwaningo lomkhakha, lesi sihloko sihlaziya ngokuphelele izinguquko zesakhiwo emakethe yomhlaba wonke yesilica ngemva kwempi yaseMpumalanga Ephakathi, sibikezela izitayela zamanani kanye nokuhlukahluka kwesidingo eminyakeni emithathu ezayo, futhi sihlinzeka ngezincomo zamasu ezingasebenzi ezinkampanini ezingenhla nezansi emaketangeni ezimboni.

1. Kungani Lokhu Kuhlaziya Kubalulekile: I-Silica Akuyona Into Ejwayelekile Yamakhemikhali

I-Silica (ikakhulukazi i-precipitated silica ne-fumed silica) iyona "itshe elingabonakali" lemboni yesimanje, enezicelo ezihlanganisa cishe zonke izindawo ezibalulekile kusuka ekudleni kuya kumandla amasha:

Izimoto Zikagesi

: Isihlanganisi esiyinhloko esiqinisayo samathayi aluhlaza, lapho i-EV ngayinye idla cishe u-8-12 kg we-silica esakazeka kakhulu

Imboni ye-Photovoltaic

: Ingxenye ebalulekile yama-PV encapsulation films, ethinta ngqo impilo yomjikelezo kanye nokusebenza kahle kokukhiqiza amandla

Imboni Yokudla

: Yiyona kuphela i-anti-caking agent evunyelwe, esetshenziswa ku-90% wemikhiqizo yobisi oluyimpuphu kanye nezinongo emhlabeni jikelele

Ulwazi Lwe-elektroniki

: Impahla eyinhloko yokupakisha ama-semiconductor kanye nama-preform we-optical fiber, nemikhiqizo ephezulu edinga ubumsulwa obungu-99.9999%

Imithi & Ezempilo

: Izithako zemithi kanye nezinto zokuhlikihla ezikwii-toothpaste, ezihlobene ngqo nempilo nokuphepha komuntu

Okubaluleke kakhulu, i-silica iyimikhiqizo ejwayele ukusebenzisa amandla amaningi: izindleko zamandla zenza ngaphezu kuka-90% wokukhiqizwa kwe-fumed silica kanye no-15-20% wokukhiqizwa kwe-precipitated silica. Lokhu kwenza imakethe ye-silica yomhlaba wonke ibe novela kakhulu ekushintsheni kwamanani amandla kanye nezokuthutha - imikhakha emibili ethinteke kakhulu futhi kakhulu yimpi yaseMiddle East.

2. Inkathi Ngemuva Kwempi YaseMiddle East: Izinguquko Ezintathu Ezinkulu Sezenzekile

2.1 Ukuhlukaniswa Kwezindleko Zamandla: Izinzuzo Zokukhiqiza E-Europe Ziyashintshwa Ngokuphelele

IMpumalanga Ephakathi ihlinzeka ngama-31% kawoyela olwandle emhlabeni wonke kanye nama-20% okuthekelisa i-LNG emhlabeni wonke. Ngemuva kokuqubuka kombango, amanani zegesi yemvelo ye-TTF yaseYurophu anyukele ku-38% ngosuku olulodwa, okubeke isishayo esikhulu kubakhiqizi be-silica baseYurophu abathembela kakhulu egazini lemvelo ukuze bathole amandla.

Ukwahlukaniswa kwezindleko zamandla ekukhiqizweni kwe-silica okukhombisa umthelela wezinto zezombangazwe ezindlekweni zokukhiqiza.

Idatha Yakamuva (Q1 2026):

Ukusetshenziswa kwamandla okukhiqiza kwe-fumed silica ezinkampanini ezintathu ezinkulu zaseYurophu (i-Evonik, i-Solvay, i-Wacker Chemie) kwehla kusuka ku-85% ngaphambi kombango kuya ku-58%
Izindleko zokukhiqiza ezitshalweni zaseJalimane ze-Evonik zikhuphuke ngo-42% kusukela ekupheleni kuka-2025, ziphoqa inkampani ukuthi idlulisele ezinye izimfuno eziphezulu ezitshalweni zase-US nase-Asia
Isakhiwo samandla aseChina esibusa ngamalahle sihlala sinzile, sandisa inzuzo yezindleko zokukhiqiza i-precipitated silica kusuka ku-20% yaya ku-45% nangaphezulu

Iphuzu Lomdlalo Wemakethe: Izinkampani zaseYurophu ziyaqhubeka nokudlulisela amandla okukhiqiza ezifundeni ezinama-cost aphezulu kakhulu. Iphrojekthi ye-Evonik eyama-tons angu-300,000 ngonyaka ye-high-end precipitated silica eQinzhou, eGuangxi izoqala ukusebenza ngokugcwele ekupheleni kuka-2026, futhi iSolvay nayo ihlela ukwakha isitshalo esisha se-fumed silica eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia. Lokhu kubonisa ukudluliselwa okusheshayo kwesikhungo sokukhiqiza i-silica emhlabeni kusuka eYurophu kuya e-Asia.

2.2 Ukuhlelwa kabusha kwezinto zokuthumela: Umzila woLwandle Olubomvu Uyabuyela Kodwa Izindleko Zihlala Ziphezulu

NgoMeyi 2026, ngokuthula okwengeziwe esifundeni saseStrait of Hormuz, ezinye izinkampani zokuthumela zaqala ukubuyisela imizila yoLwandle Olubomvu, kodwa izindleko zokuthumela nezikhathi zokulethwa zihlala ziphezulu kakhulu kunezikhathi zangaphambi kwezingxabano:

Izindleko zokuthumela iziqukathi ze-China-Europe 40ft ziye zehla kusuka ku-

$$3,500$$5,000 ekuqaleni kukaMashi kuya ku$$2,200$$2,800, kodwa kusengaphezu kuka-80% kunezikhathi zokugcina zika-2025

Izindleko zokulwa nezinsizakalo eziphuthumayo zehle kodwa zisasebenza cishe ku-30% wezindleko zokuthutha jikelele
Izikhathi zokulethwa zifushane zisuka ezinsukwini eziyi-45-50 ngesikhathi sokuphikisana ziye ezinsukwini eziyi-30-35, kodwa zisasele ezinsukwini eziyi-10-15 ezinde kunokujwayelekile

Izinguquko Eziphumelelayo Ekuhwebeni:

Ukuthunyelwa kwe-silica yaseShayina eMpumalanga Ephakathi kwanda ngo-42% ngonyaka ngoJanuwari-Februwari 2026, kwaphinde kwanda kwaba ngu-51% ngoMashi
Ingxenye yokungenisa ye-EU ye-silica eyenziwe nge-silica yaseShayina yanda kakhulu ukusuka ku-28% ngo-2025 yaya ku-47% kwi-Q1 2026
IMpumalanga Ephakathi almost ayinakho ukukhiqiza i-silica kwasekhaya, ithembele ekungeniseni okungaphezu kuka-90% kwesidingo, futhi ibe yindawo ebaluleke kakhulu yokukhula kwezohwebo kumafemu aseShayina

Isihluthulelo Sokubona: Ngisho noma ukuthunyelwa kwezimpahla kuLwandle Olubomvu kubuyela esimweni esijwayelekile, abangenisi bezimpahla emhlabeni wonke ngeke babuyele kumodeli ethembele kuphela emgqeni owodwa. Ukuhlela izinto zokuthutha okuhlukahlukene nokuhlelwa kwabaphakeli sekuyisivumelwano semboni, kudala ithuba elingazange libonwe ezinkampanini zaseShayina ezikhiqiza i-silica ukuthi zingene ezimakethe eziphakeme zaseYurophu neMelika.

2.3 Ukuhlukana Okukhulayo Kwesidingo: Imikhiqizo Ephezulu Iyantuleka, Imikhiqizo Ephansi Inesidingo Esiningi Kakhulu

Esikhathini esilandelayo ingxabano yaseMiddle East, imakethe ye-silica yomhlaba ibonisa iphethini ecacile "yezicelo ezimbili":

Isidingo Esikhula Kakhulu, Esinokumelana Okukhulu (Ukukhula Okungu-15%+ ngo-2026):

I-silica ye-fumed grade ye-PV

: Ukukhula okuqhume ngenxa yokwakhiwa kwezinsiza ezinkulu ze-PV eMiddle East, nesidingo kulindeleke ukuthi sikhule ngo-65% ngo-2026

I-silica ye-precipitated ehambisa kalula ye-tire grade

: Ukuthengiswa kwezimoto ze-EV emhlabeni wonke kuyaqhubeka nokukhula, nokungena kwamathayi aluhlaza kudlula u-60%

I-silica ye-food grade ne-pharmaceutical grade

: Isidingo esizinzile nesiqinile esinezidingo eziphakeme kakhulu zokuphepha kwezinto ezithuthwayo

Isidingo esibuthakathaka, esinokukhiqiza ngokweqile (Ukukhula kungaphansi kuka-3% ngo-2026):

I-Silica yokwakhiwa kwezakhiwo kanye neyokugqoka yezimboni

: Ithintwe imakethe yezindlu yaseYurophu ebucayi kanye nokubambezeleka kokutshalwa kwezimali kwezinsiza eMiddle East

I-silica ejwayelekile yezinga lerabha

: Ukukhiqiza ngokweqile okukhulu ngokuncintisana okunamandla kwamanani

Idatha Yentengo Yakamuva (Meyi 2026):

I-silica ye-fumed ye-PV ephezulu:

$$6,200$$7,200/ton, ikhuphuke ngo-18% ngonyaka, nezikhathi zokulethwa zande zaba izinyanga ezingu-3-4

I-silica ye-precipitated ehambisa kalula kakhulu yezinga lamathayi:

$$1,180$$1,320/ton, cishe ayishintshile ngonyaka

I-silica ye-precipitated ejwayelekile yezinga lezimboni:

$$580$$660/ton, yehle ngo-12% ngonyaka

3. Isibikezelo Semakethe Sika-2026-2028: Izitayela Ezine Ezingeke Ziguquke

Isitayela 1: Ingxenye Yemakethe Yomhlaba Wonke Yezinkampani zaseShayina Izodlula u-50%

I-China njengamanje ibalelwa ku-40% wamandla omhlaba wokukhiqiza i-precipitated silica kanye no-25% wamandla omhlaba wokukhiqiza i-fumed silica. Ngokuncipha kwamandla aseYurophu kanye nentuthuko yezobuchwepheshe yezinkampani zaseShayina, kulindeleke ukuthi ngo-2028:

Ingxenye yemakethe yomhlaba ye-precipitated silica yaseShayina izofinyelela ku-55%
Ingxenye yemakethe yomhlaba ye-fumed silica yaseShayina izofinyelela ku-38%
Izinkampani ezihamba phambili zaseShayina ezifana neQuechen Silicon Chemical kanye neHuifu Nanomaterial zizongena kwezinhlanu eziphezulu emhlabeni

I-Trend 2: Imikhiqizo Ephezulu Iba Yindawo Eyinhloko Yempi Yokuncintisana

Imakethe ye-silica ephansi ihlushwa ukuminyana ngokweqile kanye nezinzuzo ezincane, kanti imakethe yemikhiqizo ephezulu ijabulela isidingo esinamandla, izithiyo eziphakeme zobuchwepheshe kanye nezinzuzo ezinhle. Emyakeni emithathu ezayo, ukuncintisana phakathi kwezinkampani ze-silica zomhlaba kuzogxila ezindaweni eziphakeme ezilandelayo:

I-fumed silica enokukhanya okuphezulu yokufakwa kwe-PV
I-precipitated silica ehlakazeka kakhulu yamathayi e-EV
I-silica ephezulu kakhulu yamasekhondaktha kanye ne-elektroniki
I-silica esebenza ngezinhloso zemithi nezokwelapha

Amathrendi 3: Izinhlelo Zokuhlinzekwa Kwesifunda Zisheshisa Ukwakheka

Ukunciphisa ubungozi be-geopolitical kanye nezindleko zokuhambisa, imboni ye-silica yomhlaba wonke isuka ku-"globalization" iye ku-"regionalization":

Izinkampani zaseYurophu zizogxila ekusekeleni izimakethe zaseNyakatho Melika kanye nezasekhaya zaseYurophu
Izinkampani zaseShayina zizobusa izimakethe zase-Asia, Middle East kanye ne-Africa
Izinkampani ezinkulu zizobeka izindawo zokukhiqiza ezindaweni ezinkulu zabathengi

Amathrendi 4: Ukukhiqiza Okuluhlaza Kuyaba Yikhono Elibalulekile Lokuncintisana

I-EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) izosebenza ngokusemthethweni ngo-2026, futhi i-silica njengomkhiqizo odla amandla izofakwa esikhaleni sezintela. Lokhu kusho:

Ukuhlelwa kwezinto zokuhambisa okuhlukahlukene emakethe ye-silica okukhombisa izindlela zokuhambisa kanye nezindlela zokuthutha.

Imikhiqizo ye-silica ekhiqizwe kusetshenziswa amandla ahlanzekile izothola izinzuzo ezinkulu zamanani
Izinkampani zaseShayina zidinga ukusheshisa ukuguqulwa kwesakhiwo samandla nokunciphisa ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni
I-carbon footprint izoba isikhombisi sekhwalithi esibalulekile semikhiqizo ye-silica yesikhathi esizayo

4. Umdlalo Wemakethe: Ukuhlelwa Kwamasu Nezimpendulo Zabathintekayo Bonke

Ama-Giant aseYurophu: Ukunciphisa ukuzivikela, Ukugxila ku-High-End

Evonik

: Ukuvala amanye amandla aphelelwe isikhathi eJalimane, ukukhulisa utshalomali e-US naseChina, ukugxila ekuthuthukiseni imikhiqizo ye-pharmaceutical ne-electronic-grade ephezulu

Solvay

: Ukudayisa amanye amabhizinisi angabalulekile, ukugxilisa izinsiza ekuthuthukiseni i-silica yezindiza kanye ne-specialty coatings

Wacker Chemie

: Ukwakha umugqa omusha wokukhiqiza i-silica ye-hydrophobic wamathani angu-30,000 ngonyaka eMalaysia ukukhonza imakethe yokukhiqiza izinto zikagesi eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia

Izinkampani zaseShayina: Ukusheshisa Ukwanda Kwamazwe Ngamazwe, Ukuthuthukiswa Kobuchwepheshe

Quechen Silicon Chemical

: Ukudayiswa kwe-Silica kudlule amathani angu-100,000 ku-Q1 2026, kukhuphuke ngo-18% ngonyaka, kanti ukuthekelisa kube u-45% wokudayiswa okuphelele

Huifu Nanomaterial

: Umthamo we-fumed silica ufinyelela amathani angu-50,000 ngonyaka, kuthuthukiswa imikhiqizo ye-semiconductor-grade high-purity

Izabelo ze-Black Cat

: Ukutshala izigidi ezi-2 zezigidi zama-yuan ukwakha iphrojekthi ye-silica engu-150,000 amathani ngonyaka, egxile ekusekeleni imakethe yamathayi e-EV

Abasebenzisi Bokugcina: Ukuthenga Okuhlukahlukene, Ukuvala Isikhathi Eside Sokuhlinzekwa

Izinkampani ezinkulu zamathayi ezifana ne-Michelin ne-Bridgestone zingenele izivumelwano zesikhathi eside zokuhlinzekwa zeminyaka engu-3-5 nezinkampani zaseShayina ze-silica
Izinkampani ze-PV zakha izinhlelo zabahlinzeki ababili noma ngisho abathathu ukuze zigweme ubungozi bokuhlinzekwa okukodwa
Food and pharmaceutical companies are accelerating the qualification process for Chinese suppliers

5. Izincomo Zamasu: Ungalubamba Kanjani Uhambo Lokuguqulwa Kwezinto Zokuhlinzeka

Kubakhiqizi

Bopha izinkontileka zamandla nezinto zokusetshenziswa zesikhathi eside

: Ikakhulukazi nge-sulfur ne-soda ash ezintengo eziguquguqukayo, kunconywa ukusayina izinkontileka zesikhathi eside zeminyaka engu-1-2

Khulisa utshalomali lwe-R&D emikhiqizweni ephezulu

: Gxilisa izinsiza ze-R&D emikhakheni ekhula kakhulu njenge-photovoltaics, ama-EVs kanye ne-electronics

Lungisa ukuhlelwa komthamo womhlaba

: Sakha izindawo zokukhiqiza ezimakethe ezintsha njengeMiddle East neSoutheast Asia ukunciphisa izindleko zokuthutha

Khuthaza ukuguqulwa kokukhiqiza okuluhlaza

: Ukuthunyelwa kwamandla ahlanzekile kusenesikhathi, ukunciphisa ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni, nokulungiselela izinqubomgomo ze-EU CBAM

Kubasebenzisi Bokugcina

Ukusungula uhlelo lokuhlinzeka oluhlukahlukene

: Ungathembeli kakhulu esifundeni esisodwa noma kumhlinzeki oyedwa

Ukukhuphula ngendlela efanele amazinga ezinto eziphephile

: Kunconywa ukukhuphula isitoko kusuka ezinyangeni ezingu-1-2 zangaphambili kuya ezinyangeni ezingu-3-4

Ukusungula ubudlelwano obuyisistimu nabahlinzeki ababalulekile

: Ukusayina izinkontileka zokuhlinzeka zesikhathi eside ukuze kuvinjelwe amanani namandla

Naka intuthuko yobuchwepheshe yabaphakeli baseShayina

: Izinkampani zaseShayina zifinyelele amazinga aphelele omhlaba emikhakheni eminingi ephezulu

Kubatshali bemali

Gxila kumabhizinisi ahamba phambili we-silica aphezulu

: Ikakhulukazi lawo anezinzuzo zobuchwepheshe emikhakheni ye-photovoltaic kanye ne-EV

Naka ukukhula kokusebenza okulethwa ukwanda kwamandla okukhiqiza

: Amandla amasha ezinkampani ezifana neQuechen Silicon Chemical neHuifu Nanomaterial azokhishwa kancane kancane ngo-2026-2027

Qaphela ubungozi bokweqisa kwamandla okukhiqiza emikhiqizweni esezingeni eliphansi

: Gwema ukutshala imali kumaphrojekthi anokuqukethwe kobuchwepheshe obuphansi nokufana okubi kakhulu

Isiphetho

Noma ngabe impi yaseMiddle East iyancipha kancane kancane, umthelela wayo embonini ye-silica yomhlaba wonke usaqala. Le nkinga iveze ukuba sengozini kwezinto ezihanjiswa emhlabeni wonke futhi iphinde yanikeza ithuba lokuthuthuka elingazenzeki kanye ngempilo ezinkampanini ze-silica zaseShayina.

Eminyakeni emithathu ezayo, imakethe ye-silica yomhlaba wonke izobona ukuhlelwa kabusha okungakaze kwenzeke. Izinkampani ezingakwazi ukubeka imikhiqizo ephezulu kusengaphambili, ukuthuthukisa amandla omhlaba wonke kanye nokukhuthaza ukukhiqizwa okuluhlaza zizovela kuleli hlelo lokuhlelwa kwezinto ezihanjiswa emhlabeni wonke futhi zibe ngabaholi emakethe yomhlaba wonke.

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