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Kungani Amanani Okuthutha Ngomkhumbi Olwandle Phakathi KweChina NeSouth Korea Akhuphuke Kakhulu? Ukuhlaziya Okujulile Okusekelwe Kudatha Nesifinyezo Semakethe
Kwadalwa ngo 09.24
Kungani Amazinga Okuthutha Olwandle Phakathi Kwe-China neNingizimu Korea Akhuphuke Kakhulu? Ukuhlola Okusekelwe Kudatha Okujulile
Ukubuka Konke Kwezimakethe
Umzila wamabhokisi phakathi kwe-China neNingizimu Korea ubelokhu uthathwa njengendlela eyisisekelo yokuthumela okuzinzile, okungabizi kakhulu phakathi kwe-Asia. Leso sicabango saphazanyiswa ngo-Q3 2026.
- Izinyanga ezi-3 ezedlule: ~$100 / 40HQ
- Inyanga eyodwa edlule: ~$500 / 40HQ
- Maphakathi no-Okthoba 2026 spot: ~$1,000 / 40HQ
Nakuba amazinga ayisisekelo kaSepthemba e-40GP abhalwe ku-$510–$610 yi-SINO Shipping, imishini ye-high-cube, izinkokhelo zesizini ephezulu kanye nokulethwa kuka-Okthoba kuye kwakhuphula amazinga angempela e-40HQ kabili kulawo mazinga – ukunyakaza okungakaze kubonwe emzileni omfushane.
Izimbangela Eziyinhloko Zokukhuphuka
1. Ukwabiwa kabusha komthamo womhlaba wonke kunciphisa ukuhlinzekwa phakathi kwe-Asia
Imakethe yomhlaba wonke yamabhokisi ihamba ngokunciphisa amandla ngamabomu. Ngokusho kwe-Drewry's Cancelled Sailings Tracker (18 Septhemba 2026), kuhlelwe ukuhamba kwezingodo ezingama-77 phakathi kweviki lama-39 neviki lama-43 kuhambo oluhleliwe olungama-720 – izinga lokukhansela elingu-11%. Cishe u-86% wokuncishiswa kwehla emigwaqweni emikhulu yaseTranspacific nase-Asia-Europe.
Njengoba abathwali bethumela imikhumbi emikhulu ukuze bavikele inzuzo emikhakheni yamabanga amade, imikhumbi emincane yokuhambisa edonsa umzila waseKorea iyaphindwa iyiswe kabusha noma imiswe. Umphumela uwukuthi izikhala ezitholakalayo ziyancipha futhi ukukhuphuka kwamanani kuyashesha lapho isidingo sikhuphuka.
2. Izinkokhelo ezengeziwe ziyahlangana phezu kwamanani ayisisekelo
U-Okthoba 2026 uletha igagasi lokunyuka kwezintela ezisemthethweni:
- Izindleko zokuphatha itheminali
: I-Maersk imemezele izindleko ezibuyekeziwe ze-OHC zokuhweba kwaseNingizimu Korea kusukela ngo-Okthoba 1, 2026, inyusa izindleko ngeyunithi engu-40ft.
- Izindleko zesizini ephezulu (PSS)
: I-CMA CGM neminye imigqa ifake i-PSS ekuthumeleni kwaseMpumalanga Asia kusukela ngo-Okthoba 1, okubonisa ukuminyana okubanzi kwemakethe.
- Izindleko zokulawula
: Uhlaka lwaseNingizimu Korea lwe-Safe Freight Rate lwango-2026 lwengeze cishe u-15% ezindlekweni zasekhaya zokuthutha kanye neziteshi, ngokusho kwe-JAS Worldwide.
3. Uphethiloli we-Bunker usasezingeni eliphezulu ngokomlando
Uphethiloli yisici esikhulu kunazo zonke esiguqukayo sezindleko kubathwali. Kusukela ngoSepthemba 24, 2026:
- i-Singapore VLSFO: $859.5 / mt
- i-Singapore MGO: $1,328.5 / mt
I-Ship & Bunker ibikezela ukuthi izintengo ze-VLSFO zekota yesine zizolingana no-$740/mt e-Hong Kong futhi zibe phezulu emachwebeni esifunda. Emizileni emifushane lapho izindleko ezingaguquki zohambo ziphakeme khona, yonke idola ekwenyukeni kwe-bunker lihumusha ngokushesha ekwenyukeni kwezindleko zokuthutha.
4. Ukuhlangana kwesidingo: i-Golden Week + ukugcinwa kabusha kwezimboni zaseKorea
Imicimbi emibili yesidingo iyashayisana:
- I-Golden Week yaseChina
: Amafekthri asheshisa ukuthunyelwa kwempahla ngaphambi kweholide lika-Okthoba, okudala ukwanda kwempahla kwamasonto angu-1–2.
- Ukwakhiwa kwesitoko sekota yesine eNingizimu Korea
: Umkhakha wokucubungula ukudla waseKorea ongu-$82 billion uncike kakhulu ekuthengeni izinto zokusetshenziswa kanye nezithako. Kuhlangene nokugcinwa kabusha komkhakha wamakhemikhali nowezemithi, lokhu kudala isidingo esiqhubekayo sempahla enkulu kuze kube sekupheleni konyaka.
Ukugcwala kwetheku ezikhungweni zaseShayina kukhulisa kakhulu ubunzima. I-Linerlytica ibika ukuthi ama-TEU angaphezu kwezigidi ezine athintekile ngenxa yokubambezeleka kwetheku eShanghai naseNingbo, nemikhumbi elinda kuze kufike izinsuku eziyi-12 – lokhu kususa amandla emakethe.
Umbono Nezincomo Ezingasetshenziswa
- Esikhathini esiseduze (Okthoba–Novemba 2026)
: Amanani mancane amathuba okuthi ehle ngendlela ephusile kuze kube ngemuva kwesizini ephezulu futhi kuqedwe umsebenzi omile waseChina ngemuva kwamaholide.
- Isikhathi esimaphakathi
: Umthamo we-Intra-Asia uzohlala uminyene uma nje inzuzo yemizila emikhulu ihlala ikhanga kubathwali.
Izincomo kubathumeli:
- Qinisekisa indawo yomkhumbi emasontweni angu-3-4 ngaphambi kwesikhathi; ukubhuka kwesikhashana sekugcina kuzoba nezindleko eziphezulu kakhulu.
- Faka izigatshana zokunyuka kwezindleko zokuthutha ezinkontilekeni zamakhasimende ukuze kwabelwane ngengozi yokuguquguquka.
- Thuthukisa ukulayishwa kwamaphalethi nokusetshenziswa kwe-cube ukuze kwandiswe umthwalo ngokugcwele ngebhokisi ngalinye.
- Hlukanisa izinhlobo zama-forwarder kanye nezinkampani zokuthutha ukuze ugweme ukushoda komthamo wendlela eyodwa.
Imithombo: Drewry Cancelled Sailings Tracker, izimemezelo zentela ka-Maersk, Ship & Bunker, SINO Shipping, Oil Price API, Korea Customs Service
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