Ukuhlaziywa Okuphelele: Ukukhuphuka Kwentengo YeSulfure kanye Nomthelela Wakho Embonini YeSilica kanye Nezinyathelo Zokulwa

Ukuhlaziywa Okuphelele: Ukukhuphuka Kwentengo Yesulfure kanye Nomthelela Wakho Emhlabeni Wemboni Ye-Silica kanye Nezindlela Zokulwa

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Kusukela ngo-2026, izintengo ze-sulfur yasekhaya ezidayiswayo ziye zaqhubeka zikhuphuka kakhulu, ngokuzuza okuphezulu phakathi nenyanga okungu-44% phakathi nonyaka. Ekufikeni kwesiqongo ngoJuni, intengo yokuthengiselana evamile ye-sulfur eqinile eZhenjiang Port inyuke yafinyelela phezulu ku-11,600 yuan ngetoni, okubonisa ukwenyuka okuhlanganisiwe okungaphezu kuka-210% ukusuka cishe ku-3,800 yuan ngetoni ekuqaleni konyaka, kanye nokwenyuka kwesiqongo sonyaka okungaphezu kuka-217%. Ise yaba yimpahla eguquguquka kakhulu ochungechungeni lwezimboni zamakhemikhali aphezulu. Lokhu kunyuka kwentengo akubangelwanga yinto eyodwa, kodwa ukuhlangana kokuphazamiseka kokuhlinzeka okuvela ezingxabanweni zezwekazi, ukwanda kwesidingo esivela emkhakheni wamandla amasha, kanye nokwanda kwegebe lomhlaba wonke phakathi kokuhlinzeka nesidingo. Umphumela wokudluliswa kwezindleko zawo uya ngokuya ungene ezingxenyeni ezingaphansi ezifana ne-precipitated silica, okusheshisa ukwakhiwa kabusha kwesimo sezimboni kanye nezinguquko kumqondo wokuhweba womhlaba wonke.

I. Izimbangela Eziyisisekelo Zokukhuphuka: Ukulinganiselwa Okuqinile Kokuhlinzekwa kanye Nokukhula Kwesidingo Okuvumelanayo

Isimo sezimboni sesulfure sinquma ukuntuleka kwayo okungokwemvelo kokunwebeka kokuhlinzeka: u-98% womkhiqizo wesulfure emhlabeni utholakala njengomkhiqizo oseceleni wokuhlanza uwoyela nokucubungula igesi yemvelo, futhi umthamo wakho uhlobene nokuhlelwa kokukhiqizwa kukawoyela negesi futhi awukwazi ukwanda ngokushesha ngenxa yokwenyuka kwentengo. Kusukela ngo-2026, izingxabano zezepolitiki ezikhulayo eMpumalanga Ephakathi ziphazamise isikhathi eside ukuhamba kwemikhumbi eStrait of Hormuz, ethwala cishe u-40% wokuhweba komhlaba wonke wesulfure olwandle. Lokhu kuholele ngqo ekuncipheni okukhulu kokungeniswa kwesulfure eChina: engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2026, ukungeniswa kwesulfure eChina sekuphelele kufinyelele ku-2.261 million tons, ukwehla nge-57.7% uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule. NgoJuni kuphela, ukungeniswa kwakungu-147,000 tons kuphela, ukwehla nge-85.1% uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule, okufinyelela umthamo wokungeniswa wanyanga zonke ophansi kakhulu eminyakeni engu-20. Ngaleso sikhathi, izitoko zesulfure emachwebeni asekhaya ziqhubeka nokuncipha, zehla zafinyelela ezingeni eliphansi lama-ton amaningi angu-700,000, okuyizinga eliphansi kakhulu eminyakeni ecishe ibe yishumi, okushiya ukuhlinzeka kwemakethe yezinto ezikhona kucindezelwe kakhulu.

Ohlangothini lwesidingo, izinsika ezintathu zinikeza ukusekelwa okuqinile: Okokuqala, imboni yomanyolo we-phosphate (emelela u-52% wokusetshenziswa kwesulfure) isekela isidingo esiqinile, ngokulungiselela umanyolo wasekwindla kanye nama-oda okuthekelisa asekela isidingo esizinzile se-sulfuric acid. Okwesibili, ukukhula okukhulu komkhakha wamandla amasha kuye kwaholela ekusetshenzisweni okukhulu kwe-sulfuric acid ekukhiqizeni i-lithium iron phosphate (LFP) kanye ne-Indonesian laterite nickel hydrometallurgy, lapho ithoni ngayinye ye-hydrometallurgical nickel isebenzisa ama-ton angu-11.7 esulfure, okuba umgqugquzeli oyinhloko wokukhula kwesidingo. Okwesithathu, izindawo zokuncibilikisa ithusi, ezijabulela inzuzo ephezulu phakathi namanani aphezulu ethusi, zikhuphule ukukhiqiza futhi zancintisana nge-sulfuric acid, okwanciphisa kakhulu ukunikezwa okutholakalayo embonini yamakhemikhali. Phakathi kokungafani kwesidingo nokunikezwa, izilinganiso zezikhungo zibeka ukushoda kwesulfure kwaminyaka yonke emhlabeni wonke cishe kuma-ton angu-5.13 million, okuholela ekukhuphukeni kwamanani ngokushesha.

II. Umbono Wokuthambekela Kwentengo: Ukuguquguquka Kwezinga Eliphezulu Esikhathini Esifushane, Ukuthambekela Okuya Phansi Kwesikhathi Esimaphakathi Neside

Isikhathi Esifushane (Q4 2026): Ukuhlanganiswa Kwezinga Eliphezulu, Ukulungiswa Okujulile Okulinganiselwe

Izintengo zesulfure zizohlala ziphezulu engxenyeni yesine yonyaka, zisekelwa izici ezintathu eziyisisekelo: izingxabano zezwekazi azibonisi zimpawu zokuthula, futhi inkinga yokuhlinzekwa kwezinto ngomkhumbi ngeke ixazululwe esikhathini esifushane; izitoko zamachweba zisezingeni eliphansi kakhulu emlandweni futhi umjikelezo wokugcwalisa izitoko mude; ingxenye yesine yonyaka iyisikhathi esiphezulu sokulungiselela umanyolo wasebusika embonini yomanyolo we-phosphate yaseChina, nokwesekwa okunamandla kwesidingo esiqinile.

Kodwa-ke, ithuba lokunyuka kwentengo okukhulu ngokwengeziwe lilinganiselwe. Izintengo eziphezulu seziqalile ukunciphisa isidingo sangaphansi: ezinye izitshalo zikamanyolo we-phosphate kanye nabakhiqizi bezinto zebhethri banciphise ukukhiqiza ngokulandelana, futhi izinga lokusebenza lomkhakha wezinto zebhethri waseChina lehle ngo-38%. Ngaleso sikhathi, ezinye izinqubo ezingezinye ezifana nokukhiqizwa kwe-sulfuric acid okususelwa ku-phosphogypsum zinokuba nokwenzeka okukhulu kwezomnotho (indlela ehlukile iba nokuncintisana kwezindleko lapho izintengo zesulfure zidlula ama-yuan ayi-1,800–2,400 ngethoni) futhi zizokwenza kancane kancane ingxenye yesidingo. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi intengo ye-sulfure yasekhaya ekhona izosebenza ebangeni lama-yuan ayi-7,500–10,500 ngethoni kwikota yesine.

Isikhathi Esiphakathi Nendawo Neside (2027–2030): Isikhungo Sentengo Sihlehla Phansi, Akunakwenzeka Ukubuyela Ezingeni Eliphansi Emlandweni

Ngokukhululwa kancane kancane komthamo wesulfure osekelayo ukuhluza kukaphethroli negesi emhlabeni wonke, ukuncipha kwezindleko zokungqubuzana kwezepolitiki nezindawo, kanye nokwanda komthamo wezinye izindlela ezinjenge-asidi yesimbi encibilikisiwe kanye ne-asidi esekelwe ku-phosphogypsum, isikhungo sentengo yesulfure sizokwehla kancane kancane ngemuva kuka-2027. Kulindeleke ukuthi ibanga lokusebenza lesikhathi esimaphakathi neside libe ngu-4,000–6,000 yuan ngetoni. Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yoshintsho lwamandla emhlabeni wonke kanye nokwehla kwezindleko zokutshala imali kukaphethroli negesi, umqondo oyisisekelo wokuntuleka kwamandla okunwebeka kokuhlinzekwa kwesulfure awukashintshi, futhi akunakwenzeka ukuthi izintengo zibuyele emazingeni aphansi esikhathi eside abonwa ngaphambi kuka-2024.

III. Imithelela Ejulile Embonini Ye-Silica Ekhishiwe

I-Sulfuric acid iyisakhiwo esiyisisekelo se-precipitated silica, futhi isulfure iyingxenye eyisisekelo yezindleko ze-sulfuric acid. Ukukhuphuka kwentengo yesulfure kuzoshintsha imboni ye-silica kusuka ezingxenyeni eziningi ezihlanganisa izindleko, ukwakheka kwemboni kanye nohwebo:

1. Ukukhuphuka Okuhlelekile Kwesikhungo Sezindleko

I-asidi ye-sulfuric ithatha ingxenye ephezulu yezindleko zokukhiqiza ze-silica eyenziwe ngokuhlehla. Ukukhuphuka okukhulu kwentengo yesulfure kubangela ngqo ukukhuphuka kwezindleko zezinto zokusetshenziswa kuyo yonke imboni. Amabhizinisi amancane naphakathi nendawo abhekana nengcindezi enkulu yezindleko kanye nokuncipha kwemikhawulo yenzuzo ngenxa yokungabi nokwanele kwesilinganiso kanye namandla okuxoxisana abuthakathaka. Amabhizinisi ahamba phambili angavikela ingxenye yengcindezi ngokubeka intengo ngezivumelwano zesikhathi eside kanye nokuhlelwa okuhlanganisiwe, kodwa ukukhuphuka kwesikhungo sezindleko kuyo yonke imboni kuyisimo esivele sikhona.

2. Ukwehlukaniswa Kwesakhiwo Somkhiqizo Okuqinisiwe Ngokwengeziwe

Iphethini ehlukile yemboni ethi "ukusetshenziswa ngokweqile nokuncintisana okukhulu kumazinga avamile, ukuntuleka kokuhlinzekwa nokuthola inzuzo enkulu kumazinga aphezulu" izokhula nakakhulu. I-silica yezinga elivamile ibhekene namandla okuxoxisana abuthakathaka ezansi nokudluliswa kwezindleko okungekuhle, okubeka amabhizinisi esimweni esinzima: ukukhulisa izintengo kuholela ekulahlekelweni kwama-oda, kuyilapho ukugcina izintengo kuholela ekulahlekelweni. Ngokuphambene nalokho, izigaba ze-silica zezinga eliphezulu ezifana nezinga lethayi eluhlaza, i-fumed silica, kanye nezinga lokudla nemithi zinomuzwa ophansi wokukhathazeka ngentengo ezansi kanye nezithiyo eziphezulu zokuqinisekiswa, ezinokuqina okunamandla kwenzuzo, futhi zizoba ukusekelwa okuyisisekelo kwamabhizinisi ukuhamba emijikelezweni.

3. Ukugxila Kwezimboni Okusheshisiwe Kubadlali Abahamba Phambili

Ngaphansi kwengcindezi yezindleko, indawo yokuhlala yamabhizinisi amancane naphakathi nendawo asehlane iyaqhubeka nokuncipha, okusheshisa ukuhlanganiswa komkhakha. Amabhizinisi ahamba phambili azothatha isabelo esikhulu semakethe ngenxa yemiphumela yesilinganiso, ukuhlelwa kweketango lezimboni okuhlanganisiwe kanye nengxenye ephezulu yemikhiqizo esezingeni eliphezulu, okuholela ekuthuthukisweni okuqhubekayo kokugxila komkhakha.

4. Ukukhula Kwenani Lokushintshwa Kwemikhiqizo YaseChina Esezingeni Eliphezulu Emakethe Yokuthengisa Kwamanye Amazwe

Esimeni sokukhuphuka kwentengo yesulfure emhlabeni wonke, izinkampani zasezweni linye ze-silica nazo zibhekene nengcindezi yezindleko, okugqamisa kakhulu inzuzo yezindleko zomkhiqizo we-silica waseChina wezinga eliphezulu. Izinkampani ezinazo zonke izitifiketi zamazwe ngamazwe ezifana ne-KOSHER, HALAL kanye ne-BPJPH yase-Indonesia zizothola amandla okubeka intengo namandla okuncintisana emakethe kwezohwebo lomhlaba wonke, zivulela ithuba lokuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo yezinga eliphezulu kwamanye amazwe.

IV. Iziphakamiso Zokuphathwa Kwebhizinisi Nokulawulwa Kwezingozi Zohwebo Lwangaphandle

Uma ibhekene nokushintshashintsha okukhulu kwentengo yesulfure, amabhizinisi e-silica angaghubeka nokulawula izingozi kanye nokuhleleka kwamasu kusuka ezingxenyeni eziningi:

1. Ukubeka Intengo: Kunconywa ukwengeza imigomo yokuxhumanisa intengo yesulfure/sulfuric acid kuma-oda ohwebo lwangaphandle, ukubeka imikhawulo yokulungisa intengo, kanye nokudlulisela izingozi zokushintshashintsha kwezinto zokusetshenziswa kubathengi abangaphansi.

2. Ukuqapha: Ukusungula indlela yokulandelela yamasonto onke, egxile kuzinkomba ezintathu eziyisisekelo: isitoko sesulfure sasechwebeni, inani lokufika kwempahla evela kwamanye amazwe, kanye nezinga lokusebenza kwemboni ye-sulfuric acid.

3. Ukuthengwa kwezinto ezingavuthiwe: Hlela izivumelwano zesikhathi eside zokukhiya intengo ngokufanele, futhi uhlole imigudu ehlukahlukene yezinto ezingavuthiwe njenge-asidi ye-smelter kanye ne-asidi esekelwe ku-phosphogypsum ukuze kuncishiswe ukuncika emgudwini owodwa wesulfure.

4. Ukuhlelwa komkhiqizo: Shesha ukuqinisekiswa nokuhlelwa komthamo wemikhiqizo esezingeni eliphezulu, khulisa ingxenye yemikhiqizo esezingeni lokudla, esezingeni lemithi kanye neyezimboni ezisezingeni eliphezulu, futhi uqinise ukuqina kwenzuzo.

5. Ukuphathwa kwempahla: Lawula ngokufanele impahla yezinto ezingavuthiwe kanye nomkhiqizo oqediwe ngokwesigqi se-oda, gwema ukuqongelela ngokungacabangi emazingeni entengo aphezulu, futhi uqaphele ingozi yokulungiswa kwentengo.